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Did US Politicians Expect the China Shock?

文献类型: 外文期刊

作者: Bombardini, Matilde 1 ; LI, Bingjing 2 ; Trebbi, Francesco 1 ;

作者机构: 1.Univ Calif Berkeley, Haas Sch Business, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA

2.HKU Business Sch, Hong Kong, Peoples R China

期刊名称:AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW ( 影响因子:10.7; 五年影响因子:12.7 )

ISSN: 0002-8282

年卷期: 2023 年 113 卷 1 期

页码:

收录情况: SCI

摘要: Information sets, expectations, and preferences of politicians are fundamental, but unobserved determinants of their policy choices. Employing repeated votes in the US House of Representatives on China's normal trade relations (NTR) status during the two decades straddling China's World Trade Organization (WTO) accession, we apply a moment inequality approach designed to deliver consistent estimates under weak informational assumptions on the information sets of members of Congress. This methodology offers a robust way to test hypotheses about what information politicians have at the time of their decision and to estimate the weight that constituents, ideology, and other factors have in policy making and voting. (JEL D72, D78, D83, D84, F14, P33)

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